There are predictions based on hocus pocus, on pure hokum, and
on sheer chutzpah, and for which a grain of salt, not to mention
sheer naiveté, are required. Then, again, there are predictions
based on more solid foundation, be it facts, analytical models, or
some other rational rationale. It is this category of prediction to
which I subscribe, specifically when it comes to making predictions
about brands. Given it’s that time of year (and, that I’m as much a
traditionalist as a rationalist), I thought I’d pass along my two
cents on which brands I believe will keep their edge in 2013.
The rational rationale for my predictions is the general rule of
thumb for what gives any brand the best chance for success these
days. Or, actually it’s three rules of thumb. First of all, all
brands with an edge get the basics right. They deliver as promised
down to even the simplest, most overlooked things. Target, for
example, doesn’t just keep offering up the latest looks in fashion
and household goods for less, the aisles of its stores are wide and
clutter-free making cart navigation easy, there are plenty of
registers at the front of the store for quick check-out, and there
is always a “red shirt” nearby to help you find what you’re looking
for.
Target takes the table stakes as seriously as the higher
level branding factors and it shows.
Second, and closely associated with the first rule of thumb, is
that brands with an edge orchestrate the entire brand experience
efficiently and effectively. They don’t just do one thing right and
assume customers will stand up and cheer , they ensure everything
from soup to nuts is done well.
Take Zappos, for instance. The stellar reputation
of this online store for shoes and more is based on the sum of its
parts, from the depth and breadth of its inventory, to its
user-friendly web site, to its uber-friendly customer service,
including its super-easy return process. Ask anyone who has bought
a pair of shoes from Zappos and the word “awesome” will most likely
come up in the description of their experience with the brand.
The third rule of thumb by which one can (cautiously) predict
that a brand will keep its edge is that it remains authentic, or
true to its core message in everything it does. Yes, yes, I know
this word can be overused, if not misused, by branding people, but
when used, well, authentically, it’s a critical factor in what
makes for a brand’s success. Consumers are both savvier and more
skeptical than ever before. If they sense that something about a
brand just doesn’t feel real, they’ll let the world know about real
fast. A company that tries for present itself as “cool” simply by
aligning itself with cool celebrities, much like
Kodak did a couple of years back when it brought in
hip-hop stars Pitbull, Rihanna, and Trey Songz to tout its new
camera, is totally not cool. It’s like a nerdy guy going to a frat
party filled with football heroes thinking all the girls will
assume he’s a football hero. More than ever before, a brand must
stay true to its values and not try to be something it’s not.
So, my predictions for which brands will stay out in
front in 2013, in addition to Target and Zappos, based on these
three key rules? Here goes:
1. Chobani: One might have thought there was no
room left in the yogurt aisle for another Greek-style product. One
might have thought that there was no innovative thinking to be had
in the food category in general, a pretty slow-growth arena. Those
who thought those thoughts haven’t tried Chobani, or haven’t looked
at the company’s sales numbers. They also haven’t looked at this
brand with respect to my rules of thumb. It’s a great tasting
product, which is a pretty basic requirement for any food. Its
other branding touch points, from its extra-large cup and fresh,
shiny packaging, to the inventive flavors like pomegranate and
pineapple, to its line extensions like Chobani Champions for kids
and Chobani Bites, small 100-calorie cups perfect for a quick,
delicious snack, are consistent with its promise. And, its name
(the Greek word for shepherd), along with its rich and creamy
texture, hit the authenticity key to the tune of over $1 billion in
annual sales.
Not bad for a company just going into its sixth
year.
2. Panera: One might have thought there was no
room left in the fast food category, let alone new thoughts to
think about the category, that is until Panera came along. The
reason for its success is simple: It has differentiated itself as a
fast food restaurant by serving up healthy and very tasty menu
choices at an affordable price point, and doing so within a warm
and stylish atmosphere. The setting is light and airy, the seating
is comfortable, the visual merchandising is artfully done, and the
food is served on real dishware, not in paper wrappers or on
plastic plates. Basics done right? Check. Consistent experience
from menu to venue, not matter where the venue, be it California or
Colorado? Check. Authentically fresh-baked bread and artisanal
salads and sandwiches? Check. Sales trending upward?
Absolutely.
Check for yourself.
3. Bond, James Bond: Not sure if you saw
Skyfall. Great movie. Not sure if you’re aware that James Bond is a
brand.
Great brand, even after 50 years. Why? See my three rules of
thumb. Every Bond movie gets the basics right, from the iconic 007
logo, to the iconic music, the bulletproof story line, the exotic
locations, the foes we love to hate, and, of course, the martinis,
shaken not stirred. Every movie is consistently orchestrated and
executed from the gripping opening scenes to the boy-gets-girl
ending, to meet our highest Bond brand expectations. And,
authentic? This solid franchise continues to ensure Bond, be it
Connery or Craig, is on-brand from his tuxedos to his technological
toys to his lady friends. Can’t wait to see what the Broccoli
franchise has in store for us in the coming year.
4. Amazon: What happens when you have more than
tens of millions of items—and counting—for sale, you have more than
8 million customers whose individual needs you do your absolute
best to meet, and you do whatever it takes to make the sales
process as easy and convenient as possible? You keep your edge as a
brand.
Amazon is one of the greatest brand success stories of all time and
for all the right reasons. (See three rules of thumb, above,
along with the adage, “The customer is always right.”.) Enough
said.
5. Apple: This brand doesn’t have tens of
millions of unique things for sale, but it has sold tens of
millions of all i-things-and counting. Despite its most recent
Apple Maps faux pas, despite the passing of its legendary founder,
Steve Jobs, Apple continues to get the formula for leading edge
brand right. Its “basics” set the standard for the categories in
which it competes. It consistently and beautifully orchestrates the
brand experience from product design and functionality, to
packaging, to advertising. And there is no doubt that when you use
anything Apple, it’s the real deal. And, while the differences
between phone and even tablet features continue to shrink from one
company to the next, I believe Apple’s future success as a brand
will be driven by software and software integration that will make
life more fun, easier and more easily shared. Apple, above any
other rule of thumb, is about innovation–knowing what people want
before they can even tell you. My
sixth sense tells me this is not going to change anytime
soon.
6. Toyota: Okay, I know about the lawsuit that
ended up with Toyota paying out millions over an accelerator issue.
But, hear me out. Despite this setback, and despite the enormous
setback in 2008 as a result of the horrific tsunami disaster,
Toyota will have sold 9.7 million vehicles in 2012, overtaking
General Motors and every other automobile manufacturer. More than
this, its gas-electric Prius model topped Consumer Reports annual
list of Best Values for the first time, stating that the car’s cost
to operate is about half that of conventional vehicles. Just as
innovation matters in the tech category, it matters in the auto
category and Toyota, while buckling down on the basics and every
other rule of brand ascendency, is nothing, if not inventive in its
thinking.
My forecast is that the brand will continue to own the road in
2013.
7. Downton Abbey: Six Emmys. Millions of
viewers of every age. Its first season was a phenomenon when it
arrived on the American telly. It continues to fascinate as an
entertainment vehicle and as a brand for many reasons. It’s nailed
the basics, from the superb production values, to the strong story
lines that keep our interest week after week with family intrigue
and old-fashioned romance. It’s consistent in execution inclusive
of its beautifully cast of players and their pitch-perfect
dialogue. And, as for authenticity, dare you even ask? The sweeping
green lawns, the fresh-cut flowers, the polished dinnerware, and
the costumes. Every detail is in place as if attended to by Mr.
Bates, the valet, himself. Stay tuned.
My prediction is that Downtown Abbey will be a ratings favorite for
the foreseeable future, whether you catch it on your local PBS
station, Netflix or your iPad.
While making predictions about brands is sort of like making
predictions about stocks, I do think that there are rational
underpinnings that make doing so a bit more realistic than, say,
arranging your schedule based on the Mayan calendar. In any event,
these are my predictions, not guarantees. Consult with your
financial advisor before making any investment decisions. And,
Happy New Year!